Political Masochist – T Minus Seven Days

Welcome to my columnar countdown to the 2006 Midterm Elections. Over the next several days, I will be describing why I think the elections aren’t going to be quite as bad for the Republicans as most people are saying they will – or, at the very least, offer what ruminations I have concerning the current political atmosphere, since I have a slightly wider-angle view of this election than I have for the last several cycles. For the record, I’m very much enjoying watching this one from the Hill.

*In Rove we trust?

Much has been made (and most would agree rightly so) of the GOP get-out-the-vote (GOTV) machine, more or less conceived in 2001, developed, and honed over the last several cycles. In many respects it has been the great equalizer that makes competitive races once dominated, if not controlled, by the “coalitions of coalitions” that serve as the Democrat turnout mechanism. While a handful of naysayers have referenced “the alleged Republican turnout machine” as if it were a thing somehow unproven, the vast majority of sane, politically aware people recognize that Republicans' GOTV advantage is just as real and tangible as the fundraising edge we consistently enjoy. The program has consistently shaven 2-4 points off any given race come Election Day. In some districts, that’s the hair’s breadth between life and death. The 72 Hour Program, Voter Vault, it all works – it’s just a matter of adding sufficient manpower to the machine to make it go.

The question is, will it be enough? Many facts point to an affirmative answer. Somewhat inexplicably, Republican volunteerism has been consistent if not rising in spite of significant challenges to the party writ large. These numbers that have been cited as the cause of both Rove and Bush’s uncanny (and that’s coming from me, people) optimism is recent weeks. Such high volunteerism also flies in the face of the base-will-stay-at-home fears of many analysts.

That said, Architect or not, all numbers lining up between Roveland and Reality doth not an election necessarily win. In Oregon in 2004, we outperformed our turnout goals and hit what should have been our magic numbers across the board. The problem was that Democrats also outperformed. Now Oregon is politically unique in a million ways – not the least of which is that no city in the world singularly hates Bush with the intensity of Portland, and they let the world know. The question is whether the Oregonian sentiment has spread nationwide in the last two years to the extent that Republicans doing their 72 Hour best in every district won’t be good enough.

My guess is probably not. While there’s ill will toward the President and Republicans in general, it seems to be more a resignation or disgruntledness among the party faithful instead of a get-me-to-the-ballot-box righteous indignation spreading like wildfire. At the end of the day, the Bush-haters were already that way and have simply maintained their vigor. If the GOTV machine works as it should, I would predict it pulls out the Republican win at least seventy five percent of the time, all other things being equal.

* On bad analogies on the campaign trail…

For those who haven’t read the Santorum insanity involving Lord of the Rings, click here. For those who know the analogy but haven’t seen the Colbert take on it, click here for must-see analysis. I’m so glad someone decided to actually think this one through all the way.